Acute and Critical Care

Original Article

Pulmonary
Development of a prognostic scoring system in patients with pneumonia requiring ventilator care for more than 4 days: a single-center observational study: Yeseul Oh, Yewon Kang, Kwangha Lee; Acute Crit Care. 2021;36(1):46-53. Published online February 17, 2021; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4266/acc.2020.00787

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Background
The aim of the present study was to develop a prognostic model using demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and clinical variables measured on day 4 of mechanical ventilation (MV) for patients with prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (PAMV; MV for >96 hours).
Methods
Data from 437 patients (70.9% male; median age, 68 years) were obtained over a period of 9 years. All patients were diagnosed with pneumonia. Binary logistic regression identified factors predicting mortality at 90 days after the start of MV. A PAMV prognosis score was calculating ß-coefficient values and assigning points to variables.
Results
The overall 90-day mortality rate was 47.1%. Five factors (age ≥65 years, body mass index <18.5 kg/m², hemato-oncologic diseases as comorbidities, requirement for vasopressors on day 4 of MV and requirement for neuromuscular blocking agents on day 4 of MV) were identified as prognostic indicators. Each factor was valued as +1 point, and used to develop a PAMV prognosis score. This score showed acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.695 for mortality, 95% confidence interval 0.650–0.738, p<0.001), and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow chi-square=6.331, with df 7 and p=0.502). The cutoff value for predicting mortality based on the maximum Youden index was ≤2 (sensitivity, 87.5%; specificity, 41.3%). For patients with PAMV scores ≤1, 2, 3 and ≥4, the 90-day mortality rates were 29.2%, 45.7%, 67.9%, and 90.9%, respectively (P<0.001).
Conclusions
Our study developed a PAMV prognosis score for predicting 90-day mortality. Further research is needed to validate the utility of this score.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

Ability of the modified NUTRIC score to predict mortality in patients requiring short-term versus prolonged acute mechanical ventilation: a retrospective cohort study
Wanho Yoo, Hyojin Jang, Hayoung Seong, Saerom Kim, Soo Han Kim, Eun-Jung Jo, Jung Seop Eom, Kwangha Lee
Therapeutic Advances in Respiratory Disease.2024;[Epub] CrossRef
Association between mechanical power and intensive care unit mortality in Korean patients under pressure-controlled ventilation
Jae Kyeom Sim, Sang-Min Lee, Hyung Koo Kang, Kyung Chan Kim, Young Sam Kim, Yun Seong Kim, Won-Yeon Lee, Sunghoon Park, So Young Park, Ju-Hee Park, Yun Su Sim, Kwangha Lee, Yeon Joo Lee, Jin Hwa Lee, Heung Bum Lee, Chae-Man Lim, Won-Il Choi, Ji Young Hong
Acute and Critical Care.2024; 39(1): 91. CrossRef

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